The New Mexico State football team has already shown promise early in the season. Through three games, NMSU has taken down in-state rival New Mexico and fallen a possession short of knocking off Power Five player Arizona State and Sun Belt leading Troy, who gave Boise State a run for their money. All of those games have, for better or worse, been exciting down-to-the-wire matchups –but this Saturday’s game against UTEP at Aggie Memorial Stadium at 6 p.m. could be a defining moment for Head Coach Doug Martin’s team in his fifth season at the helm.

NMSU enters Saturday’s contest as an 18 point favorite over a (to this point) lowly Miners team, but having lost eight straight games to UTEP, Martin doesn’t care much about predictions.

“Until our program goes out and wins this football game, we don’t deserve to be favorites,” Martin said, still believing in his team’s ability to flip the historic script of the rivalry. “You can throw all those records out… This game is going to be an absolute war.”

“Whether it be a rivalry game or a regular game, the main goal always is to win,” linebacker Malik Demby said, downplaying the hype surrounding this one game, a mindset that has remained consistent under Coach Martin. However, no player on the NMSU roster has beaten UTEP though, so this game will be special to an experienced, senior heavy team.

No game is automatic, but at this point in the season for both teams, it makes sense why NMSU is the favorite. Here are some reasons why Aggie fans should feel confident in the team delivering this weekend and starting the season 2-2 for the first time since 2014.

UTEP dealing with issues at all levels

Not much has gone well for UTEP so far in the 2017 season. A bevy of injuries to key players, including starting quarterback Ryan Metz, has contributed to a disappointing 0-3 start for the Miners. Metz was sidelined during the 63-16 shellacking at the hands of Arizona last Friday due to a shoulder injury and Head Coach Sean Kugler has not set a timetable for the first-string signal caller’s return. Offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Brent Pease was fired after an underwhelming start to the season for the Miner offense, with tight ends and special teams coach Brian Natkin taking over play-calling duties.

Miners struggling offensively

While it’s impossible to blame one aspect of a football team for their lack of success, it is impossible to ignore UTEP’s rough start to the season on the offensive side of the ball. The Miners have been outscored 150-37 through three games, ranking in the bottom five in the country in total offensive production, scoring offense, rushing yards per game and first downs per game. Allowing an average of 50 points every contest makes the defense look bad, with reason, and won’t win many games for anybody, but the offense’s inability to sustain drives (losing the time of possession battle by an average of 10 minutes every game) puts them in a bind.

This is a rivalry game though, so it would be foolish to completely write off UTEP who has had full control of the rivalry in recent history. Two offensive starters who are looking to make an impact for the Miners are former Las Cruces prep stars Kavika Johnson and Forrest McKee. Metz’s status is also unknown and getting him back would be huge for an offense that has failed to score 20 points in a game this season.

Aggie defense continues to improve

The offensive successes for NMSU have been easy to notice this season, as they currently pace the Sun Belt in third down conversion percentage and cracked the top two in passing offense and total points scored in the conference. However, the defensive strides made by the Aggies have played a huge role in the team’s success and competitiveness against quality opponents this year. Through their first three games, NMSU has held opponents to a 34 percent conversion rate on third down, good for third in the conference, and has held opponents to 30 points per game, a step in the right direction compared to the 38.8 they were giving up last year.

“These guys have just bought in,” Martin said, crediting the increasing familiarity between the players and Defensive Coordinator Frank Spaziani in his second season. Martin also noted that the team “is as healthy as [they’ve] been” all season. The culmination of health and experience makes for an optimistic view on a side of the ball that was has already been trending upward.

NMSU looks to get Rose and the running game going

Tyler Rogers and the NMSU passing barrage has been jaw-dropping early, having thrown for the sixth most passing yards (1130) and fifth most passing touchdowns (10) out of all Division I quarterbacks this season. While impressive, volume is a big catalyst behind the production. Rogers has thrown an average of 53 passes a game, with his 159 total being good for the second most attempts in the nation.

NMSU will need to get more out of their run game and star running back Larry Rose III, a member of the Doak Walker Award Watchlist just last year, if they want to keep their potent offensive attack balanced and successful. The Aggies haven’t given the backfield many opportunities to make plays, rushing the ball just 24 times a game, a number that pales in comparison to the 37 attempts per game last year. If NMSU can add a solid ground game to their already explosive air raid, the sky is the limit for this offense.

What a win would mean for NMSU

The Aggies currently trail in the all-time series between the two rivals 35-57-2 and haven’t beaten UTEP since 2008. One football game doesn’t make or break a season, but this one seems different for a promising NMSU team. Nobody on the current roster has beaten the Miners and this is as good of a chance as the team has had in the Doug Martin era. The last time NMSU was this heavy of a favorite in the battle of I-10, the Aggies dominated with a 49-14 victory in 2002 and finished that year 7-5. Every game matters but it would be naive to not believe that this is the biggest game of the season, and a must win if the Aggies want to make it to a bowl game for the first time since 1960. This team has that special feeling about them, it’s just a matter of seizing the opportunity, starting with a win Saturday night.