The New Mexico State football team needs to put together a run in their final four games if they want to have any chance at appearing in a bowl game, and that run has to start with capitalizing on this Saturday’s key matchup against Texas State in San Marcos.

NMSU fell to 3-5 and 1-3 in the Sun Belt after falling to Arkansas State last weekend in a game that the Aggies really had a chance to take over until a fourth quarter explosion from the Red Wolves put it out of reach. Despite the game’s first 45 minutes being close, New Mexico State played far from their best, primarily on the offensive side of the ball. An “embarrassing” effort from the offensive line that allowed seven sacks and and just 1.1 yards per rush attempt limited the Aggie offense to only 256 total yards of offense — their lowest mark of the season — and the defense allowed 20 points in the fourth quarter after holding a high powered Arkansas State offense to 17 points leading up to that. Head Coach Doug Martin attributed the team’s late struggles to a lack of mental toughness and physicality, something that will need to change if they want to beat a gritty Texas State team.

“It’s all about us rebounding, seeing how tough we are and seeing if we’re tough enough to win four,” Martin said. “If we’re not tough enough then we won’t deserve to win. It’s going to come down to who wants to play and who’s going to be able to get it done.”

The Aggie defense actually did play well against the conference leading Arkansas State offense even though they were put in unfavorable situations as far as field position and time of possession throughout the game, getting seven sacks of their own and holding the Red Wolves to a 21 percent third down conversion rate. If this group can play as well in the fourth quarter as they do in the first three, then NMSU’s fourth ranked total defense could climb even higher and be among the Sun Belt’s elite.

“There’s a lot more cohesiveness when we’re on the field together this year. We’ve had talent in the past but it was really the belief and the mindset of the defensive players that wasn’t there. We’ve honed in on that and we know we’re good,” linebacker Malik Demby said when talking about the team’s improvement on the defensive side of the ball. “Physically we’re as tough as they come but mentally, sometimes it gets away from us. We just have to take one play at a time and we’ll be good.”

While NMSU’s offense is still one of the most prolific in the conference, many of the issues that were highlighted in the Arkansas State loss have plagued the Aggies, to some extent, throughout the season. Quarterback Tyler Rogers and the passing attack does pace the conference in production through the air, but that’s required a nation-high 381 passing attempts by Rogers to achieve, leading to 15 interceptions — another FBS leading mark — and a somewhat predictable plan for defenses. Rogers is responsible for some of the picks but with a high volume like that, mistakes become more and more likely.

The running game has also taken a hit for the Aggies, with NMSU being the only team in the Sun Belt to not average over 100 rush yards per game through eight contests this season, a serious cause for concern especially considering the dynamic backfield duo of Larry Rose and Jason Huntley. New Mexico State will need to have a more balanced offensive attack if they want to keep teams honest and stay efficient in the passing game while being able to control the ball on the ground.

There is still plenty to be excited about when looking at this NMSU team. The Aggies have taken care of the teams they should have beaten so far and play four teams under .500 down the stretch. They’ve also already been tested by the cream of the crop in the Sun Belt and have been in each game, with their three conference losses coming to Troy, App. State, and Arkansas State, who are a combined 11-1 when playing other conference teams. The goal for the Aggies will be to rattle off four wins in a row and end the season 7-5, but the focus must be one win at a time, starting with Texas State.